Welcome To Beijing, Mr. Ambassador

Ambassador Gary Locke, America’s first Chinese-American Governor and America’s Tenth Ambassador to China (and only Chinese-American to hold the post) was the guest of honor at a lunch today, hosted by the American Chamber of Commerce in China and the US-China Business Council. He’s had an interesting and rather unusual time of it so far, in ways that were also, probably, unexpected.

First, some background:

When I was a young boy -- maybe 10 or 11 years old -- I had a chance encounter with one of the many members of the Rockefeller family that lived in suburban New York. What I remember about that glimpse was that my father used it as a “teachable moment” about values. Strikingly, here was a member of one of America’s then richest families, driving down the road in a well-worn Ford station-wagon; one of those ubiquitous buggies with the big round taillights, mini fins canted up and out at a forty-five degree angle, and fake woodgrain on the side. A Woodie, as we used to call them but, of course, just painted steel that looked, from 30 feet away, like wood. Unassuming and rather modest for someone so unaccountably rich.

So: what does that have to do with welcoming a new American Ambassador to Beijing?

One of the most curious subtexts of Ambassador Gary Locke’s short time here in the Peoples’ Paradise is that he has come in for a bit of chatter from Baidu posters and the Sina Weibo masses for some incongruous, at least for many Chinese, Ambo-sightings. This has nothing to do with Amb. Locke’s speeches. It has everything to do with something more akin to his political body language.

The first sighting was a photo of the new ambassador on his departure from Seattle-Tacoma Int’l Airport, on his way to Beijing. He did something totally unremarkable for most Americans. He bought a Starbucks coffee -- it was Seattle, after all -- while his backpack was slung over his shoulder. My reaction was: well, you have to put your pack over your shoulder so you can use your hands to manage your coffee. The Chinese reaction was completely different: “He bought his own coffee? Why? What’s with that? And he carried his own bag?”

More recently, he’s apparently been scouted tooling around Beijing on a bicycle, shocking the locals even more.

All of this is quintessentially American. At least that part of the American character that most Americans are proud of. Its like a Rockefeller tooling around suburban New York in an everyman’s aging Ford station wagon. And why not? For many Chinese that I’ve heard from, this is a very refreshing thing. A “Senior Official” (and Beijing is overflowing with them) who sees himself as a normal human being (albeit with a pretty interesting and high ranking job)? Bravo!

For many other Chinese, its a sign of America’s inescapable and inevitable decline. High ranking officials, they believe, should let no opportunity escape to remind everyone that they are: powerful; not like you and I; special; held to a different standard; and so on. If you can, and don’t, there must be something wrong. But there’s nothing wrong with Amb. Locke. I’m sure his State Department armored limo is in great condition. He’s just self aware enough to know who he is. Who he really is. In the U.S., no matter the reality, people with either power or money or both want to be seen as being “just everyday folks” or, as the Chinese would say “laobaixing (老百姓)”. Its an eloquent statement, and a welcome one.

So, Mr. Ambassador: Welcome to Beijing!

And Thank You!

What's Next, Redux.

It's Not Fun Being Right

I posted this article a while ago; February 1st 2009, to be exact. While I may have missed a few of the details, overall I think I was pretty much spot-on. The social fabric of Europe is getting frayed, as is that of the U.S. (think of the Tea Party movement as a sign of things to come) and, of course, the "Arab Spring" wasn't a phrase that would have meant too much two and a half years ago. There's much more of this on the way, I'm afraid.

What's Next? (February 1, 2009)

As the global economic order collapses, most of the attention has been, for obvious reasons, on economics. After all, this is, first and foremost, an economic problem. We've all, those paying attention, become steeped in the vocabulary of economics and the financial world: credit-default swaps, hedge funds, yield curves, Treasury bond pricing, currency valuation, trade imbalances, savings rates (or lack thereof). For me, it has always been useful to try to look at problems from a completely different perspective. Sometimes its an empty and fruitless exercise -- interesting, perhaps -- but ultimately, providing no new insight. At other times, a whole new light can be shone on something and we see it in a new way.

The economic collapse we're witnessing is so complex and so multi-faceted & nuanced, that it gives us all kinds of different angles to watch from. One very popular Scenic Viewing Spot, a great Photo Op, you might say, is to look at the current situation and compare it to the Great Depression of 1929-1939 (or so). Certainly, there's a lot we can learn from the mistakes of the past that will help policy makers deal with the dilemmas of today. Its not the same, of course; it never is. But there are enough similarities, and the mistakes of the 1930's were so glaringly obvious, that the same mistakes won't be repeated. In China, in the U.S., in Europe, the media (and policy makers meeting rooms, you can bet) are filled with analysis and studies of lessons to be learned. There's been at least one thing that's been largely missing from the discussion, altho I'd bet that, at least in Zhongnanhai, the Powers That Be have been paying close attention. The media, to be sure (at least from my reading) hasn't woken up to the problem yet. What is it? Its the issue of what's next. What happens in the aftermath of an economic collapse of this magnitude? Again, a look back to the Great Depression is useful. It doesn't mean that the same things will happen; they never do. But similar things could happen, even if in different ways and in different places. Here's what I mean: the biggest & most consequential result of the 1929-1933 economic collapse was not economic, altho that was bad enough. It was political. Europe saw a turn from liberal democracy towards fascism, resulting in the rise to power of the National Socialists (who weren't really socialist at all) in Germany and the National Fascists in Italy. In Asia, Japan turned to the militarism that was latent in Japanese culture and politics. And, of course, the consequence of this broad political shift was World War Two. I'm not suggesting that the current problems will lead to another big war. Not at all. What I'm suggesting is that a broad shift downward in the economic prospects of hundreds of millions of people, if not billions, is likely to have political repercussions.

Already we have seen the Icelandic government collapse. Russians are restive, as are people in other pockets, both in Europe and in China. The U.S. has seen a peaceful, albeit dramatic, political change. With apologies to Elizabeth Kubler-Ross, I'd like to suggest that her Five Stages of Grief (Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Psychological Depression, and Acceptance) have a sociological and political application. First off, though, some caveats. These stages are not predictive, meaning they aren't inevitable. They may come in a rather random order. While, for individuals, there is a sequence, the edges are rather fuzzy (one can be alternate, for instance, between denial and anger). lastly, people don't necessarily go thru all the stages. Kubler-Ross maintained that people always experienced at least two stages, altho which two could vary. This is, in my opinion, even more true with large groups of people. Certainly, some of these stages of grief are already apparent. Who would today suggest that as recently as last summer, denial was not common? Americans were characterized as a "nation of whiners" by former Senator Phil Gramm. John McCain famously said the American economy was "fundamentally sound". If that isn't denial, the meaning is lost on me.

While some are still in denial, you can see evidence of bargaining, particularly in the halls of government. Then again, that's their job. In the U.S., at least, anger has been apparent, but it hasn't been a broad motivating factor. In other regions, it has been more visible. In China, it has sprouted up but has not been a broadly motivating factor for most of the population. For most of the world, the situation is in its early stages. There is economic pain, to be sure, but it is still characterized by early stage shock and denial. What is to be feared is the anger that may come as people realize their prospects & wealth may have been forever altered. If the world's government leaders, with their central bankers & finance ministers, are successful in limiting the disintegration that is potentially right around the corner, the dragon of political and social disruption will go back in its lair to hibernate for another eon. That's a big "if".